MMOG Roundup: Depressing 2004 Edition
Posted Thursday, April 8, 2004 by Mr. GBob

Back in 2000, Scott “Lum the Mad” Jennings posted a roundup of the current state of the MMOG industry. It was a simple time. One only had to pay attention to the three games that had been released, and only a few more that were in beta stage. Ah, how different the world was. Internet stocks seemed like a good investment, people didn't ram airplanes into our skyscrapers, the career of George Michael seemed over and the realm of online gaming was where magic happened. The industry was unstoppable. To publish an online game was to gain a license to print free money.

Four years later, the future isn't really bright enough to be wearing those shades.

The following is a multi-part look at the state of the industry. We'll look at the games that are released, and those not released that have the look of a contender. Finally, we'll look at the games that just seem too bizarre for words.

This first article is not intended to be a comprehensive list. There are many smaller games of 20,000 subscribers or less that will not be covered.

The industry may have failed in fulfilling its original promise, but there is some good news. For one thing, the number of people subscribing to MMOGs has increased from 450,000 players in 2000 to over 2.5 to 6 million today. Awareness of these games has increased to the point where they have become pop culture references. Subscribers are no longer confused about the concept of paying a subscription. The industry has grown from a $50 million per year industry to one that accounts for over $450,000 million in gross revenue.

It would be great news if not for the fact that it falls well short of projected numbers. Publishers signed up developers in hopes of reaching a far larger market. The market for these games in North America and Europe has only doubled, rather than tripled as expected. The majority of the growth has occurred in Asia, a market that North American developers find difficult to make inroads to.


The Survivors:



Let us first raise a glass to those games that survived over the past four years. You may not have lived up to our early expectations, but at least you're still kicking. Let’s take a look at who owns this industry.

First, a little word on the subscriber numbers quoted herein. These numbers are difficult to peg down. I based my numbers of press releases, studies I had access to when working in the industry, inside information and a whole bunch of guesswork. Others have made similar estimates, and their guess is as good as mine. I welcome any feedback or corrections. These numbers also do not take into account the most recent games to hit the market, Final Fantasy XI and Lineage 2, as their impact has not yet been fully realized in North America. In four months, the numbers in this article will need to be revised.

These charts show the market share that each game owns. Chart 1 shows both the North American and Asian marketplace combined. The next chart reflects just the North American and European market. As you can see, there are some major differences between the two.








Synopsis of Currently Released Games



Let’s look at the games that people are playing right now. It’s a crowded marketplace, all fighting over a very narrow group of players. Although some of these games are considered “2nd Generation” games, in truth they all started their development cycles early in the history of the market.


Ultima Online


Released 1997
190,000 subscribers



You scrappy little bastard. It's really all your fault. If you weren't a big hit, would others have followed? Released in the closing years of the 20th century, Ultima Online has survived even its own developer, Origin. Going on six years old, Ultima Online appears to have roughly 200,000 subscribers and it still offers a level of flexibility not yet seen in other games. Ultima Online was designed to be all things to all players. No matter if you were a crafter, a monster killer, a baker, a politician or simply someone who liked to ruin other peoples’ day, Ultima Online had something to offer you. Far more ambitious than many of the games that followed, Ultima Online offers future developers a host of lessons of what to do and what not to do in an online Game.

Pro: After six years you no longer need a fictional back story. You have your very own history. People have lived, fought, cried, laughed, shouted and engaged in all manners of cyber sex in your world. People have formed communities, forged real life friendships, and made your world part of theirs. You can't put a price tag on that and it gives a solid foundation to build on if you dedicated the resources and the people on it.

Con: It's owned by Electronic Arts and therefore will not receive the resources and the people it needs. Despite being the only online game to make EA a single dime, it will never be embraced by the company. Its outdated graphics and server code makes it nearly impossible to take to the next level. The people who made the game great have been laid off or moved on, so who will fight to keep the game running?

Prediction: As long as people subscribe, expect EA to keep it running. Players expecting new content a year from now may have a long wait. I'll miss you, UO.

Recommendation: This is a title which is possible to revive, but would require a great deal of rehabilitation. UO has a large base of players who have long abandoned the game. Bringing them back could double the subscriber base overnight. The question is how to do so.


Everquest


Released 1999
400,000 subscribers



The big dog. The 800 pound gorilla. Ultima Online may have shown people that you could make money with an online game, but EQ taught us that you could make enough money to afford thousand dollar bills printed in gold leaf to wipe your ass with. Say what you will about Everquest, it knew its target audience and hit it hard enough to make EQ part of popular culture. When a comedian makes a crack at people who live in their parents’ bedroom and play on the computer all night, it's Everquest he's referring to. Everquest brought online gaming into millions of homes and long passed Ultima Online as the model for others to follow.

Pro: Everquest works. Based on Diku MUD right down to the commands, EQ is a proven concept that makes it easy for a player to find direction immediately. Load the game, pick a character and go kill things. By the time you've gotten bored with this, you find other aspects of the game to keep you around. There's always another ubermob over the hill, and always a new challenge. It's a treadmill, but it's one that people enjoy. Because of the non-competitive nature of the game, customer service has never been a big problem for you.

Con: How long will players be willing to spend money each month to kill monsters over and over again? Then again, this was my complaint five years ago and I guess I was wrong. They seem to be willing to pay forever and ever. Damn. You made the gaming community your bitch. Still, you weren't able to make the move over to the console market successfully, and your graphics are looking very dated. Other games offer exactly what you offer, only with more polish. All you have to sell over them is your brand recognition.

Prediction: Like UO, EQ has a strong enough following to remain economically viable for Sony for many, many more years. Sony has shown a level head when it comes to publishing online titles, so it would be no surprise if EQ remains a niche product a decade from now.

Recommendation: Retention, retention, retention. EQ needs to find a way to maintain their player base in the face of stiff competition. Future expansions should be made with this in mind (EQ2, anyone?)


Lineage


Released 1999
500,000-1,000,000 subscribers



Back when Lum made the 2000 roundup, we didn't even notice this game. While all eyes in the western world were looking at the contest between UO and EQ, Lineage quickly surpassed both games in Asia, making them the largest online game in the world. No strong numbers exist, but it's estimated that Lineage has anywhere between 500,000 and a million subscribers. Well, some western eyes noticed. Richard Garriot sure did, and hitched his horse to their wagon. Lineage violates most the "rules" of online games. It's an online version of Diablo without the graphics and with more catassing. You can't really customize your avatar, and there is little in the way of a true economy. In America the game flopped. In Asia it's immense.

Pro: Lineage is strong for two reasons. The first is the phenomenon of "game rooms". Games are meant to be social activities where you interact with real people. Lineage understands this and makes gaming to be an evening out with friends. Lineage also releases its patches in the forms of "chapters" giving maximum awareness and attention to each release. These chapters also keep players addicted by giving something new to explore every few months.

Con: Because of the nature of Lineage releases, Lineage 2 may be the first example of an online sequel killing its predecessors in the marketplace. Game rooms will likely swap over to the shinier version to attract customers.

Prediction: Lineage will never be a hit in the United States, but I imagine that some variant will still be played years and years and years from now.

Recommendation: Keep doing whatever it is you do. It seems to work. Do not count on Lineage ever making it in the West, and instead concentrate on where the game is already a hit.


Asheron's Call 1 and 2


Released 1999
75,000 subscribers



Talk about the little engine that could. This game has survived a flop of a sequel, a loss of a partner in Microsoft and it's ongoing inability to attract attention to itself... and yet it's still going strong. At somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 active subscribers, Turbine has carved out a strong niche and doesn't seem to be letting go.

Pro: Turbine seems dedicated to this game. A new server is soon to be opening, and the graphics are going to get a revamp. Asheron's Call 2 might have flopped, but the game has a strong following.

Con: When a game has been around for this long, how do you keep it from fading into obscurity? Like EQ, AC does not have a unique feature set that sets it apart from the competition. Is the current subscription base large enough to generate the needed capital for continued growth?

Prediction: Ooops. AC2 didn’t work as planned. Still, the solid player base and lack of developer pressure should keep AC1 kicking for years to come.

Recommendation: Turbine needs to find ways to focus the market's attention on itself and remind interested gamers that it's still around. The idea of rebuilding the AC1 engine is a solid one, and should provide enough shiny to keep players interested. Turbine needs to look at what actually worked in AC2 and find ways to incorporate it into the first game.


Star Wars Galaxies


Released 2003
250,000 subscribers



Dance Wookie, Dance. SWG had high expectations that it has yet to live up to. Strong marketing, a solid franchise and an experienced design team made this title seemingly unstoppable. Pre-orders and community interest were larger for this game than for any other. Sony launched with an expected player base of half a million within the first month alone. Struggling at 250,000 subscribers, and burdened with poor reviews, SWG is having difficulty keeping its head above water.

In many ways SWG closely resembles Ultima Online in ways both positive and negative. Like UO, SWG is a feature-rich game with a compelling back-story and open-ended game play. The economic and political features far surpass any other game on the market. Unfortunately, this also makes the game unfriendly to new players, with a sharp learning curve. Lacking the simple direction of Everquest, SWG has far too many barriers of entry to make it appealing for novice gamers. The game also suffers from stability issues and poor implementation of features due to its ambitious scope.

Pro: Subscriber numbers for SWG are high enough to make other games yoda-green with envy. For any other title, a quarter of a million players would have the publisher dancing a happy Wookie dance. The space expansion promises to lure new players in, and help entice back many people who purchased the title only to uninstall it within the first month. SWG also boosts a player base who would not normally be playing MMOGs. With deep game play and a talented design staff, there is no reason to think that SWG won't someday live up to its promise.

Con: You've already pissed off half of your potential demographic. You pissed off many of your potential players. You're not going to make money with only 250,000 subscribers given the price you pay to George Lucas. How long will Sony allow this title to hemorrhage money without seriously reconsidering the games direction?

Prediction: The high cost of operating this game may make it difficult for SOE to keep the game active without a renegotiation of license agreement with Lucas. If the space expansion is a big hit, this may be a moot point and make the game a home run for SOE. (How much cash is SOE doling out to Lucas?)

Recommendation: The pressure is on. Your last best hope is to release the space expansion and to have it be a smash hit. The release has to be bug-free and accessible to new players. Anything less than a spectacular release will place the future of SWG in serious jeopardy. SWG will have to fight pressure to release the expansion in an unready state...and the pressure will be high.


The Sims Online


Released 2003
65,000 subscribers



EA could be holding four aces in their hand and still manage to lose a pot. The Sims was one the most popular computer games ever. Millions of copies were sold, many to non-gamers. The Sims appealed to a wider variety of gamers than traditional sword and sorcery and even appealed to the ever-elusive female gamer. To capture this market in an online subscription based setting would be groundbreaking and profitable. Like SWG, The Sims Online opened its doors with a massive ad campaign, and an expectation of half a million players. In less than a year, TSO has less than 75,000 active subscribers. Instead of appealing to everyone, the Sims Online appeals to almost nobody. EA was stuck with another loser on their hands, and one has to wonder how long before they shut the servers off on this game.

Pro: Not too many silver linings. The basic concept is still strong, with an appeal that could conceivable bring in new players to online games.

Con: Like Ultima Online, EA does not have the skilled staff needed to do the kind of radical re-vamp needed to make the game fulfill it's promise. TSO is a title that will probably never make money for EA. It's clear that they will be canceling the game some time in the immediate future. No new expansion is officially planned, so it doesn’t look very promising for Sims players.

Prediction: This game won't be on the 2005 wrap up.

Recommendation: EA will need to publish a major release that would hold an appeal to those who tried the game and didn't like it, as well as those who never tried it in the first place. If EA could release a major Sims Online expansion and tie the marketing into The Sims 2, perhaps it would have a chance. Still, the window is rapidly closing and no action seems to be in the works. EA may well choose to just surrender online games to Sony.


Shadowbane


Released 2002
60,000 subscribers



Gather round children. I want to tell you of a time when the great debate of online gaming was if other players should be allowed to kill each other. Player Vs. Player was the debate of the year. One side said that PvP was an important element in building a meaningful game world, but should be kept in control. Another side said that PvP had no role to play in online gaming. The third group said "Sup Thou. Corp Por, Biatch!" and proceeded to engage in cyber-ass raping. Shadowbane was meant for the third group. Its initial public relations campaign was dedicated at finding players who had been banned from other games and offering them a beta slot. Shadowbane was hardcore gangsta rap, yo, straight from the hood of a suburban white kids basement. Some predicted that the game would fail, proving that PvP was not worth the effort for a design team. Others said it would be a gigantic hit, proving that PvP was vital. The game suffered from production delays, loss of publishers and a falling market. By the time it hit the shelves, both the market and the game itself had changed. No longer focused on playing to crush and boobies for victory, Shadowbane proved to be a solid game with some decent mechanics. Adding some new talent to the team, Shadowbane is able to remain relatively stable, profitable and enjoyable for the players.

Pro: PvP combat and a strong guild system gives this game a useful edge in the marketplace. Players who feel part of a team are far easier to retain as a customer. Early stability issues have been resolved, and the current design team seems dedicated to make the game play a better experience.

Con: New players who first enter the game and are not part of a guild may find themselves feeling lost. As a monster bashing / exploring game, Shadowbane falls a little flat. The graphics were dated upon release, and with the release of the next generation of games the graphics look worse by the day. Early reviews of the game were not stellar, and there is no telling how committed Ubisoft will be to online games.

Prediction: I would be surprised if we didn’t see steady, reliable growth from this title. The shift in focus from making the game appeal to angry grief players to that of making a compelling game serves it well.

Recommendation: Better systems need to be developed to make the game play more appealing to new players. The marketing push also needs to be directed at existing communities where players can join as a group, thus taking advantage of the games strong group mechanics.

Next up, we look at the other games currently in release.

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